Is Tom Wambsgans Shiv's baby daddy on 'Succession'?

The "is Shiv pregnant?" discourse has prompted yet another question: who is Shiv's baby daddy, exactly? 

Sure, logic tells us that Tom Wambsgans (Matthew Macfadyen), the estranged husband of Siobhan "Shiv" Roy (played by Sarah Snook), is the father of her child, but you never know what's really what in the world of Waystar Royco. 

After some speculation following that shocking Succession season 3 finale, the HBO series confirmed the pregnancy of the youngest Roy sibling early on in Succession season 4, during a scene when Shiv receives a call from her OBGYN to schedule her 20-week scan. (We don't know exactly how far along Shiv is, but we're assuming she's at the tail-end of her first trimester.)

With the Succession finale airing on Sunday, May 28, we don't know if Shiv will give birth by the end of the series, but we do know that the TV gods better confirm once and for all those paternity results. 

In the meantime, fans haven taken to social media to speculate over *cue Maury Povich voice* who is the father. Is it Tom? What about Lukas Mattson, the Scandi tech giant that Shiv's been buddying up to this season? What about her ex-boyfriend Nate, who pops back up into the Waystar world? Here are the swirling baby-daddy theories: 

Who is Shiv's baby daddy? Inside those fan theories:

1.Tom Wambsgans

Shiv and Tom have been separated for the bulk of the fourth season, but they were still together at Caroline's wedding in Italy at the end of season 3, so in all likelihood Wambsgans is the father. The now-estranged couple had also previously discussed freezing fertilized eggs last season, though, at the time, Shiv wasn't completely sold on the idea of having Tom's baby. Did the Roy daughter have a change of heart? 

Sure, the spouses had discussed opening their relationship to other partners throughout the past four seasons, but we can't see Shiv willingly having a kid with anyone else. (Despite that very harsh balcony fight the couple had in episode 7, during which Tom yelled at Shiv: "I think you are maybe not a good person to have children.") Regardless, the show's executive producer and writer Lucy Prebble allegedly confirmed Tom's paternity on the official Succession podcast. 

2. Lukas Mattson

Shiv has been getting awfully chummy with Lukas Mattson this season. (We can't entirely blame her—the dude does look exactly like Alexander Skarsgård.) She even uses Mattson to make Tom jealous, praising how "conventionally attractive" and "broad" the GoJo founder is. However, based on the timeframe, unless the unexpected allies were getting busy offscreen early on in season 4, we can't see how Shiv could be pregnant with a mini Mattson. 

3. Nate Sofrelli

Succession viewers might remember Nate Sofrelli (Ashley Zukerman), a political strategist that Shiv once dated and reconnected with while working on Gil Eavis' presidential campaign, back from season one. Back then, the pair got a little too friendly while Shiv was still engaged to Tom.

The character makes a reappearance in episode 7 of season 4, when Kendall invites him to a tailgate party at Tom and Shiv's to probe his political connections. Siobhan is surprised by Nate's attendance at the shindig, but is that because they haven't seen each other in a while or because they have? 

4. Cousin Greg

One word: ew. Come on, people, they're literally cousins!

Succession season 4 airs on HBO and HBO Max on Sundays at 9pm EST.